{"id":17480,"date":"2023-05-08T14:43:12","date_gmt":"2023-05-08T11:43:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/?p=17480"},"modified":"2023-05-08T14:43:12","modified_gmt":"2023-05-08T11:43:12","slug":"seckini-kim-qazanacaq-r%c9%99q%c9%99ml%c9%99rin-dili-il%c9%99","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/arxivl\u0259r\/17480","title":{"rendered":"Se\u00e7kini kim qazanacaq? R\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259rin dili il\u0259"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Xasay F\u0259rzulla<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>T\u0259r\u0259f saxlamadan T\u00fcrkiy\u0259d\u0259ki se\u00e7kil\u0259rd\u0259n yazaq, g\u00f6r\u0259k kim qazanacaq.<\/p>\n<p>Ara\u015fd\u0131rma \u00f6z\u00fcm\u0259 m\u0259xsusdur.<\/p>\n<p>Prezident v\u0259 parlament se\u00e7kil\u0259rinin taleyini T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 kimi \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 h\u0259ll ed\u0259n \u0259n \u00f6n\u0259mli \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259rd\u0259n birincisi b\u0259l\u0259diyy\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259ki durumdur.<\/p>\n<p>2019- da ke\u00e7iril\u0259n b\u0259l\u0259diyy\u0259 se\u00e7kil\u0259rind\u0259 AKP b\u0259l\u0259diyy\u0259l\u0259rin say\u0131na g\u00f6r\u0259 qazanm\u0131\u015fd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>H\u0259m\u0259n se\u00e7kil\u0259rd\u0259 T\u00fcrkiy\u0259nin 30 b\u00f6y\u00fck \u015f\u0259h\u0259r b\u0259l\u0259diyy\u0259sind\u0259n 15- ni AKP, 11-ni is\u0259 CHP qazanm\u0131\u015fd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Qazanmaq m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259nin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u0259n t\u0259r\u0259fidir, amma burda bir \u00f6n\u0259mli, se\u00e7kil\u0259rin taleyini h\u0259ll ed\u0259c\u0259k m\u0259qam var.<\/p>\n<p>R\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259r\u0259 ke\u00e7\u0259k.<\/p>\n<p>T\u0259krar qeyd ed\u0259k ki, qazanal\u0131n b\u0259l\u0259diyy\u0259l\u0259rin say\u0131nda AKP \u00f6nd\u0259dir. Amma bu b\u0259l\u0259diyy\u0259l\u0259ri \u0259hat\u0259 ed\u0259n insan(se\u00e7ici yox) say\u0131nda AKP \u00e7ox geri qal\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>AKP- nin qazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 15, CHP- nin is\u0259 qazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 11 B\u00f6y\u00fck \u015e\u0259h\u0259r b\u0259l\u0259diyy\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 \u0259halinin say nisb\u0259ti bel\u0259dir :<\/p>\n<p><strong>AKP &#8211; 21,8 milyon<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>CHP- 37,8 milyon.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yerd\u0259 qalan t\u0259xmin\u0259n 20 milyon insan\u0131 \u0259hat\u0259 ed\u0259n 52 ki\u00e7ik b\u0259l\u0259diyy\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 is\u0259 \u0259hali say\u0131na g\u00f6r\u0259 AKP \u00f6n\u0259d\u0259dir:<\/p>\n<p><strong>AKP &#8211; 9,2 milyon,<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>CHP &#8211; 3,8 milyon.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>O, zaman T\u00fcrkiy\u0259nin b\u00fct\u00fcn b\u0259l\u0259diyy\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 AKP-CHP nisb\u0259ti bel\u0259 olur:<\/p>\n<p><strong>AKP &#8211; 21,8+9,2 = 31 mln.,<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>CHP- 37,8+3,8 = 41,6 mln.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Amma b\u00f6y\u00fck v\u0259 ki\u00e7ik b\u0259l\u0259diyy\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 bu 2 partiyan\u0131 d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259y\u0259n dig\u0259r partiyalar var. AKP ni d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259y\u0259n MHP-nin, CHP &#8211; ni d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259y\u0259n HDP &#8211; nin qazand\u0131qlar\u0131 b\u0259l\u0259diyy\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 \u0259hali say\u0131n\u0131 yazaq. Burda CHP x\u0259tti \u00fcst\u00fcnd\u00fcr:<\/p>\n<p><strong>MHP-(1 b\u00f6y\u00fck b\u0259l\u0259diyy\u0259, Manisa) : 1.4 mln;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>HDP-(3 b\u00f6y\u00fck b\u0259l\u0259diyy\u0259 Van, Diyarbak\u0131r, Mardin): 3,8 mln.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259ri d\u0259st\u0259kl\u0259dikl\u0259ri partiyan\u0131n r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259ri il\u0259 toplad\u0131qda bel\u0259 al\u0131n\u0131r:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Akp -31+ 1,4 =32,4 mln<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p><strong>CHP- 41,6 +3.8= 45,4 mln.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bundan \u0259lav\u0259 MHP v\u0259 HDP-nin ki\u00e7ik b\u0259l\u0259diyy\u0259l\u0259rd\u0259 d\u0259 qazand\u0131qlar\u0131 var:<\/p>\n<p><strong>MHP &#8211; 3.8 mln. <\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>HDP &#8211; 2 mln.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0130ndi ki\u00e7ikli &#8211; b\u00f6y\u00fckl\u00fc b\u0259l\u0259diyy\u0259lr\u0259d\u0259 d\u0259st\u0259k\u00e7il\u0259ri il\u0259 birg\u0259 h\u0259r 2 partiyan\u0131n \u0259hat\u0259 etdiyi \u0259hali say\u0131n\u0131 yazaq:<\/p>\n<p><strong>AKP: 32,4 +3,8= 36,2 mln.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>CHP: 45,4 +2 = 47,8 mln.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 \u0259halisinin 85 milyon oldu\u011funu n\u0259z\u0259r\u0259 alsaq faizl\u0259 durum bel\u0259dir:<\/p>\n<p><strong>AKP &#8211; 43 %<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>CHP &#8211; 56 %<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u018fg\u0259r CHP- nin \u0259hat\u0259 etdiyi b\u0259l\u0259diyy\u0259l\u0259rin f\u0259aliyy\u0259tind\u0259 bu 4 ild\u0259 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanmay\u0131bsa v\u0259 h\u0259r iki partiya t\u0259r\u0259fdarlar\u0131n\u0131n se\u00e7kiy\u0259 qat\u0131lma aktivliyi eyni olarsa, o, zaman K\u0131l\u0131cdaro\u011flunun 55-56 %-l\u0259 qazanaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durumu d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259c\u0259k 2 n\u00fcans ola bil\u0259r. Biri t\u0259bii, biri is\u0259 s\u00fcni.<\/p>\n<p>T\u0259bii olan M.\u0130nc\u0259 il\u0259<br \/>\nS.O\u011fan\u0131n alacaqlar\u0131 toplam s\u0259sl\u0259rin 5-6 faizi ke\u00e7m\u0259si. Bu durumda 2 &#8211; ci tur ehtimal\u0131 \u00e7ox y\u00fcks\u0259k olur.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci n\u00fcans is\u0259 AKP t\u0259r\u0259fdarlar\u0131n\u0131n se\u00e7kiy\u0259 m\u00fcdaxil\u0259si, q\u0131sas\u0131 karusel. Bunu dem\u0259y\u0259 \u0259sas ver\u0259n 20 il \u00f6nc\u0259 barmaq boyas\u0131n\u0131n l\u0259\u011fv edilm\u0259si g\u00f6st\u0259ril\u0259 bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n<p>Bunun qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131 is\u0259 se\u00e7ici aktivliyi il\u0259 al\u0131na bil\u0259r. T\u00fcrkiy\u0259d\u0259 se\u00e7ici aktivliyi y\u00fcks\u0259kdir, bu d\u0259f\u0259ki, se\u00e7kil\u0259rd\u0259 h\u0259tta 90 %- in \u00fcst\u00fcnd\u0259 olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zl\u0259nilir.<\/p>\n<p>Yerd\u0259 qalan t\u0259xmin\u0259n 10 % &#8211; lik passiv se\u00e7icini karusel yolu il\u0259 \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259k \u00e7ox riskli g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr. \u018fks halda % r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259rinin uy\u011funsuzlu\u011fu biab\u0131r\u00e7\u0131 bir v\u0259ziyy\u0259t yarada bil\u0259r. \u00dcmid ed\u0259k olmayacaq bel\u0259 bir hal.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Qeyd: HDP- nin qazand\u0131\u011f\u0131 3 b\u00f6y\u00fck b\u0259l\u0259diyy\u0259d\u0259n, d\u0259qiq bilmir\u0259m, birinin yoxsa ikisnin ba\u015fqan\u0131 AKP t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n q\u0259yyum atanaraq d\u0259yi\u015fdirildi. Amma bunun r\u0259q\u0259ml\u0259ri d\u0259yi\u015f\u0259c\u0259yin\u0259 inanm\u0131ram. D\u0259yi\u015fs\u0259 bel\u0259 rol oynamaz.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Xasay F\u0259rzulla T\u0259r\u0259f saxlamadan T\u00fcrkiy\u0259d\u0259ki se\u00e7kil\u0259rd\u0259n yazaq, g\u00f6r\u0259k kim qazanacaq. Ara\u015fd\u0131rma \u00f6z\u00fcm\u0259 m\u0259xsusdur. Prezident v\u0259 parlament se\u00e7kil\u0259rinin taleyini T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 kimi<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":17481,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"colormag_page_container_layout":"default_layout","colormag_page_sidebar_layout":"default_layout","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17480","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","category-manset"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/FB_IMG_1683545892779.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17480","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17480"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17480\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17482,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17480\/revisions\/17482"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17481"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17480"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17480"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17480"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}