{"id":22228,"date":"2024-11-28T17:45:00","date_gmt":"2024-11-28T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/?p=22228"},"modified":"2024-11-28T17:45:00","modified_gmt":"2024-11-28T14:45:00","slug":"muharib%c9%99-bit%c9%99c%c9%99kmi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/?p=22228","title":{"rendered":"M\u00fcharib\u0259 bit\u0259c\u0259kmi"},"content":{"rendered":"

Kamran C\u0259f\u0259rov, ekspert<\/strong><\/p>\n

Donald Tramp Rusiya v\u0259 Ukrayna \u00fczr\u0259 x\u00fcsusi n\u00fcmay\u0259nd\u0259 v\u0259zif\u0259sin\u0259 namiz\u0259dini se\u00e7di-Kit Kelloq.<\/p>\n

Kit Kelloq 2017-2021-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259 Tramp administrasiyas\u0131nda Milli T\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik \u015euras\u0131n\u0131n aparat r\u0259hb\u0259ri v\u0259 vitse-prezident Pensin milli t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259sizlik \u00fczr\u0259 m\u00fc\u015faviri olub.<\/p>\n

2024-c\u00fc ilin iyun ay\u0131nda Kelloq Trampa Ukrayna-Rusiya m\u00fcharib\u0259sinin dayand\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131\/dondurulmas\u0131\/at\u0259\u015fk\u0259s\u0259 nail olunmas\u0131 plan\u0131 t\u0259qdim etmi\u015fdi.<\/p>\n

“Amerikan\u0131n S\u0259si”nin o zaman verdiyi m\u0259lumata \u0259sas\u0259n Kit Kelloqun Trampa t\u0259qdim etdiyi plan bunlar\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tuturdu:<\/p>\n

– M\u00fcharib\u0259, h\u0259r 2 t\u0259r\u0259fin durdu\u011fu m\u00f6vqel\u0259rd\u0259 dayand\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r v\u0259 t\u0259mas x\u0259tti m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nl\u0259\u015fdirilir.<\/p>\n

– AB\u015e at\u0259\u015fk\u0259s\u0259 nail olmal\u0131 v\u0259 Ukrayna-Rusiya m\u00fcharib\u0259sinin dan\u0131\u015f\u0131qlar yolu il\u0259 dayand\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

– Rusiyan\u0131 dan\u0131\u015f\u0131qlarda i\u015ftiraka h\u0259v\u0259sl\u0259ndirm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn AB\u015e Ukraynan\u0131n NATO-ya m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n m\u00fcdd\u0259t\u0259 \u00fczv olmas\u0131 m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259sini \u0259ng\u0259ll\u0259m\u0259lidir.<\/p>\n

– Kit Kelloq yaz\u0131r ki, Ukrayna Rusiya t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n i\u015f\u011fal olunmu\u015f \u0259razil\u0259rd\u0259n(o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n Kr\u0131m\u0131) imtina etm\u0259m\u0259lidir, amma Ukrayna bu \u0259razil\u0259ri diplomatik yolla qaytarmal\u0131d\u0131r, baxmayaraq ki, proses uzun m\u00fcdd\u0259t \u00e7\u0259k\u0259 bil\u0259r. Ba\u015fqa s\u00f6zl\u0259rl\u0259, i\u015f\u011fal olunan \u0259razil\u0259r de-yure Ukraynan\u0131n \u0259razil\u0259ri olaraq qal\u0131r, de-fakto Rusiyada olsalar da.<\/p>\n

– Rusiya \u00fcz\u0259rind\u0259n b\u0259zi sanksiyalar aradan qald\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r, amma Rusiyan\u0131n ixrac etdiyi neft-qaza qar\u015f\u0131 \u0259lav\u0259 tarifl\u0259r t\u0259tbiq olunur.<\/p>\n

Kit Kelloqun t\u0259klif etdiyi plan\u0131n Ukrayna \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fcsb\u0259t v\u0259 m\u0259nfi t\u0259r\u0259fl\u0259ri var.<\/p>\n

M\u0259nfi t\u0259r\u0259fl\u0259ri: NATO-ya \u00fczv olmas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yolun dondurulmas\u0131, Rusiyan\u0131n i\u015f\u011fal edil\u0259n \u0259razil\u0259rd\u0259 qalmas\u0131, b\u0259zi sanksiyalar\u0131n l\u0259\u011fv edilm\u0259si.<\/p>\n

M\u00fcsb\u0259t t\u0259r\u0259fl\u0259ri: Rusiyan\u0131n diplomatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u018fN \u00e7ox ist\u0259diyi madd\u0259, Ukrayna Silahl\u0131 Q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259rinin h\u0259m canl\u0131 q\u00fcvv\u0259, h\u0259m texnika, h\u0259m raket v\u0259 dronlar\u0131n saxlanmas\u0131na qar\u015f\u0131 limitl\u0259rin t\u0259tbiqidir v\u0259 faktiki olaraq, USQ-nin \u00e7ox z\u0259if duruma sal\u0131nmas\u0131d\u0131r. Kelloqun plan\u0131nda bu madd\u0259 yoxdur. M\u0259hz bu madd\u0259 \u0130stanbulda imzalanan sazi\u015f\u0259 daxil edilmi\u015fdi v\u0259 m\u0259hz bu madd\u0259y\u0259 g\u00f6r\u0259 Putin indi d\u0259 \u0130stanbul sazi\u015fin\u0259 istinad edir.<\/p>\n

Bir ne\u00e7\u0259 m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259ni d\u0259 x\u00fcsusil\u0259 vur\u011fulamaq laz\u0131md\u0131r.<\/p>\n

1) Kit Kelloqun iyunda t\u0259klif etdiyi plan he\u00e7 bir halda son instansiya deyil v\u0259 Tramp\u0131n inaqurasiyas\u0131na q\u0259d\u0259r ortaya qoyulacaq s\u0259n\u0259d d\u0259f\u0259l\u0259rl\u0259 d\u0259yi\u015fdiril\u0259c\u0259k. H\u0259tta yekun s\u0259n\u0259d ortaya \u00e7\u0131xanda da, bilavasit\u0259 dan\u0131\u015f\u0131qlar zaman\u0131, orda da, m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n d\u0259yi\u015fiklikl\u0259rin edilm\u0259si istisna olunmur. Amma v\u0259 lakin, Kelloqun x\u00fcsusi n\u00fcmay\u0259nd\u0259 v\u0259zif\u0259sin\u0259 t\u0259yin olunmas\u0131 o dem\u0259kdir ki, haz\u0131rlanacaq sazi\u015f, m\u0259hz Kelloqun plan\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcn\u00f6vr\u0259sind\u0259 haz\u0131rlanacaq.<\/p>\n

2) M\u00fcharib\u0259nin dondurulmas\u0131 bar\u0259d\u0259 sazi\u015f, at\u0259\u015fk\u0259sin b\u0259rq\u0259rar\u0131n\u0131 v\u0259 silahl\u0131 q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259rin t\u0259mas x\u0259ttind\u0259n geri \u00e7\u0259kilm\u0259sini n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutur, amma bu s\u0259n\u0259d Parlamentl\u0259rd\u0259 ratifikasiya olunmur v\u0259 beyn\u0259lxalq sazi\u015f hesab olunmur. Bu c\u00fcr raz\u0131la\u015fma, m\u00fcv\u0259qq\u0259ti olaraq t\u0259r\u0259fl\u0259rin maraqlar\u0131na cavab ver\u0259n \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259rin q\u0259buludur. Nec\u0259 ki vaxt\u0131nda Minsk-1, Minsk-2 imzalan\u0131b, g\u0259l\u0259c\u0259kd\u0259 potensial imzalanacaq sazi\u015fi d\u0259 \u015f\u0259rti olaraq Minsk-3 adland\u0131rmaq olar. \u015e\u0259rti Minsk-3-\u00fcn i\u015fl\u0259k olub olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n etm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn, Minsk-1\/2-nin nec\u0259 i\u015fl\u0259k olub\/olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u0259 bil\u0259rsiniz. Ba\u015fqa s\u00f6zl\u0259rl\u0259, h\u0259r 2 t\u0259r\u0259f\u0259 s\u0259rf ed\u0259nd\u0259, bu sazi\u015fl\u0259r i\u015fl\u0259k olurdu v\u0259 \u0259ksin\u0259.<\/p>\n

Son ill\u0259r \u0259rzind\u0259 biz g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fck ki, n\u0259inki adi sazi\u015fl\u0259r, h\u0259tta Parlalamentl\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n ratifikasiya olunmu\u015f beyn\u0259lxalq m\u00fcqavil\u0259l\u0259r pozulur. Ukrayna-Rusiya m\u00fcnasib\u0259tl\u0259ri prizmas\u0131ndan baxsaq, Yeltsinin d\u00f6vr\u00fcnd\u0259 imzalanan “Dostluq, \u0259m\u0259kda\u015fl\u0131q v\u0259 t\u0259r\u0259fda\u015fl\u0131q haqq\u0131nda m\u00fcqavil\u0259”ni misal kimi g\u0259tir\u0259 bil\u0259rik. Poro\u015fenko bu m\u00fcqavil\u0259ni 2018-ci ild\u0259 l\u0259\u011fv etdi. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n diplomatik praktikas\u0131nda bu c\u00fcr sazi\u015f\/m\u00fcqavil\u0259l\u0259rin i\u015fl\u0259k olan(Kipr, Koreya) v\u0259 i\u015fl\u0259k olmayan misallar\u0131 \u00e7oxdur.<\/p>\n

Ba\u015fqa s\u00f6zl\u0259rl\u0259, h\u0259r 2 t\u0259r\u0259f, \u00f6z maraqlar\u0131na cavab ver\u0259n zaman, sazi\u015fi poza bil\u0259r. H\u0259r 2 t\u0259r\u0259f n\u00f6vb\u0259ti m\u00fcharib\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn haz\u0131rla\u015facaq v\u0259 m\u00fcnbit geosiyasi \u015f\u0259raiti g\u00f6zl\u0259y\u0259c\u0259k.<\/p>\n

Ukrayna \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn bu m\u00fcnbit \u015f\u0259rait: Trampdan sonra yenid\u0259n demokratlar\u0131n hakimiyy\u0259t\u0259 g\u0259lm\u0259sidir, Putinin getm\u0259sidir v\u0259 yerin\u0259 Q\u0259rb\u0259 loyal q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259rin g\u0259lm\u0259sidir, Avropada k\u0259skin anti-Rusiya m\u00f6vqeyind\u0259 olan siyasi q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0131rin g\u00fccl\u0259nm\u0259sidir v\u0259 s.<\/p>\n

Rusiya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fcnbit \u015f\u0259rait: AB\u015e-da Trampdan sonra daha radikal ultra-sa\u011f\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n prezident olmas\u0131d\u0131r, Avropan\u0131n g\u00fccl\u00fc \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin ba\u015f\u0131na ultra-sa\u011f\u00e7\u0131 q\u00fcvv\u0259l\u0259rin g\u0259lm\u0259sidir v\u0259 s.<\/p>\n

3) Tramp administrasiyas\u0131n\u0131n Rusiya-Ukrayna m\u00fcharib\u0259sinin bitirilm\u0259si \u00fczr\u0259 g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259c\u0259k s\u0259yl\u0259r v\u0259 ortaya qoyacaq siyasi irad\u0259 h\u0259l\u0259 o dem\u0259k deyil ki, bu m\u00fcharib\u0259 d\u0259qiq dondurulacaq(s\u00f6hb\u0259t indid\u0259n gedir).<\/p>\n

Avropan\u0131n “q\u0131r\u011f\u0131lar” d\u00fc\u015f\u0259rg\u0259sind\u0259 olan \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259r(B\u00f6y\u00fck Britaniya, Fransa, Pol\u015fa v\u0259 s.) hal-haz\u0131rda m\u00fcharib\u0259nin dondurulmas\u0131n\u0131n \u0259leyhin\u0259dir v\u0259 son g\u00fcnl\u0259rd\u0259ki b\u0259yanatlar bunu s\u00fcbut edir. Burda 2 \u00f6n\u0259mli m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 var:<\/p>\n

– Ukraynan\u0131n 2025-ci ild\u0259 m\u00fcharib\u0259ni davam etdirm\u0259k \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yet\u0259rli resurlar\u0131(h\u0259m iqtisadi, h\u0259m d\u0259 h\u0259rbi) var.<\/p>\n

– Bu yax\u0131nlarda bir ne\u00e7\u0259 t\u0259\u015fkilat Avropan\u0131n h\u0259rbi potensial\u0131n\u0131 ara\u015fd\u0131rmaq \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn, peykl\u0259rd\u0259n istifad\u0259 ed\u0259r\u0259k Avropa \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rinin h\u0259rbi bazalar\u0131nda texnikan\u0131n say\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nl\u0259\u015fdiribl\u0259r. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131xan n\u0259tic\u0259 onu dem\u0259y\u0259 \u0259sas verir ki, Avropa(+BB) t\u0259kba\u015f\u0131na Ukraynan\u0131 silahland\u0131rmaq g\u00fcc\u00fcnd\u0259dir, amma bu m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259d\u0259 h\u0259lledici faktor m\u0259hz siyasi irad\u0259 v\u0259 geosiyasi \u015f\u0259raitdir(trend).<\/p>\n

Yuxar\u0131daki faktorlar, Avropan\u0131n Trampa m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n t\u0259zyiq imkanlar\u0131 yarad\u0131r v\u0259 bu, imzalanacaq sazi\u015fin haz\u0131rlanmas\u0131 prosesind\u0259 Ukraynan\u0131n lehin\u0259 olacaq.<\/p>\n

Unutmayaq ki, Tramp\u0131n inaqurasiyas\u0131na q\u0259d\u0259r h\u0259l\u0259 2 ay var v\u0259 bu 2 ay \u0259rzind\u0259, h\u0259m d\u00f6y\u00fc\u015f meydan\u0131nda m\u00f6vcud durum, h\u0259m Rusiyan\u0131n daxilind\u0259 iqtisadi durum, h\u0259m d\u0259 USQ-nin Kursk vilay\u0259tin\u0259 n\u0259zar\u0259ti qorumas\u0131 faktoralar\u0131 \u00e7ox b\u00f6y\u00fck rol oynayacaq.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kamran C\u0259f\u0259rov, ekspert Donald Tramp Rusiya v\u0259 Ukrayna \u00fczr\u0259 x\u00fcsusi n\u00fcmay\u0259nd\u0259 v\u0259zif\u0259sin\u0259 namiz\u0259dini se\u00e7di-Kit Kelloq. Kit Kelloq 2017-2021-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259 Tramp<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":22230,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-22228","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","category-manset"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/hYwnBGthIkNzTGcrrSqWww.webp","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22228","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=22228"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22228\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":22231,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/22228\/revisions\/22231"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/22230"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=22228"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=22228"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=22228"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}