T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 prezidenti R\u0259c\u0259b Tayyip \u018frdo\u011fan T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 Cumhuriyy\u0259tinin M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n\u0131n (TCMB) r\u0259hb\u0259rinin q\u0259fil i\u015fd\u0259n \u00e7\u0131xarandan sonra lir\u0259 15-17 faiz ucuzla\u015f\u0131b. Bel\u0259 ki, son bir h\u0259ft\u0259d\u0259 1 dollar 7,21 lir\u0259d\u0259n 8,36 lir\u0259y\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259lib. Y\u0259ni lir\u0259 dollar qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda d\u0259y\u0259r itirdi. MB-\u0131n u\u00e7ot d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259si 17%-d\u0259n 19%-\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259lib.<\/p>\n
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Yeri d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015fk\u0259n, BVF 192 \u00f6lk\u0259 aras\u0131nda \u0259n y\u00fcks\u0259k u\u00e7ot d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259l\u0259ri t\u0259tbiq ed\u0259n d\u00f6vl\u0259tl\u0259rin s\u0131ras\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiy\u0259ni d\u0259 qeyd edib: Venesuela 45,3 %, Argentina 38 % v\u0259 T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 19 %.<\/p>\n
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\u0130st\u0259nil\u0259n bir d\u00f6vl\u0259tin milli valyutas\u0131n\u0131n d\u0259y\u0259r itirib v\u0259 qazanmas\u0131 h\u0259min h\u00f6kum\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 h\u0259m d\u0259 g\u00fcv\u0259n m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259si say\u0131l\u0131r.\u00a0 Son 1 il i\u00e7ind\u0259 3 d\u0259f\u0259 M\u0259rk\u0259z Bank\u0131n r\u0259hb\u0259rinin, 3 d\u0259f\u0259 TU\u0130K ba\u015fqan\u0131n v\u0259 2 d\u0259f\u0259 Maliyy\u0259 v\u0259 X\u0259zin\u0259 nazirinin d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259si n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 dollar\u0131n dal\u011falanmas\u0131 t\u0259biidir v\u0259 g\u00f6zl\u0259nil\u0259n idi. \u00c7\u00fcnki TCMB-n\u0131n sabit olan monetar siyas\u0259ti yoxdur. Tez-tez d\u0259yi\u015fdiril\u0259n M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n r\u0259hb\u0259rl\u0259ri investorlar\u0131n g\u00f6zl\u0259ntil\u0259rin\u0259 adekvat davranm\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n
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TCMB n\u0259 etm\u0259k ist\u0259yir?<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n D\u00fcnyada M\u0259rk\u0259zi Banklar\u0131n \u0259sas funskiyas\u0131 milli valyutan\u0131n faiz d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259sini m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n etm\u0259kdir. MB-n\u0131n \u0259sas 2 \u0259sas funskiyas\u0131 vard\u0131r: (\u0131) milli valyutan\u0131n faiz d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259sini m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n etm\u0259k v\u0259 (\u0131\u0131) pulun h\u0259cmi il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 verdiyi q\u0259rard\u0131r.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiy\u0259d\u0259 MB tam m\u00fcst\u0259qil olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 halda texnokratik korpus t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n y\u00f6n\u0259ldilmir. MB 4-5 illik se\u00e7ilmi\u015f mill\u0259t v\u0259kill\u0259rind\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131 olarsa, MB-n\u0131n verdiyi q\u0259rarlar populist q\u0259rarlar olacaq. Onlar se\u00e7ildikl\u0259ri zaman k\u0259sikl\u0259ri \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn iqtisadi \u201chavaland\u0131rman\u0131\u201d daha \u00e7ox t\u0259\u015fviq etm\u0259y\u0259 maraq g\u00f6st\u0259rm\u0259kl\u0259ri t\u0259biidir. Halbuki MB uzun m\u00fcdd\u0259tli monetar siyas\u0259t m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nl\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259lidir. Uzun v\u0259d\u0259li iqtisadi q\u0259rarlar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn yax\u0131n v\u0259d\u0259li f\u0259dakarl\u0131q edilm\u0259lidir. Struktur islahatlar\u0131 h\u00f6kum\u0259tl\u0259r bel\u0259 apar\u0131r. Bu bax\u0131mdan MB-\u0131n siyas\u0259tini texnokratik idar\u0259etm\u0259y\u0259 tabe olmal\u0131d\u0131r. Siyasi q\u0259rarlara ayaq uydurmaq siyas\u0259ti MB-\u0131n f\u0259aliyy\u0259tini effektiv ed\u0259 bilm\u0259z. T\u00fcrkiy\u0259nin milli valyutas\u0131nda s\u0259rt dala\u011falanmalar\u0131n \u0259sas s\u0259b\u0259bl\u0259rind\u0259n biri d\u0259 onun populist v\u0259 siyasi q\u0259rarlara daha \u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc uy\u011funla\u015fd\u0131rmaq m\u0259cburiyy\u0259ti il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr ki, T\u00fcrkiy\u0259d\u0259 son il yar\u0131m \u0259rzind\u0259 4 d\u0259f\u0259 MB r\u0259hb\u0259rinin d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259si dayan\u0131ql\u0131 monetar siyas\u0259tin apar\u0131lmas\u0131ndak\u0131 fundamental \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmazl\u0131qlar\u0131 meydana qoyur.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n H\u0259r d\u0259f\u0259 yeni MB-n\u0131n y\u00fcr\u00fctd\u00fcy\u00fc siyas\u0259t zaman\u0131 is\u0259 v\u0259t\u0259nda\u015flarda inflyasiya g\u00f6zl\u0259ntil\u0259ri art\u0131r. Bu zaman is\u0259 insanlara mallar\u0131n qiym\u0259tl\u0259rinin artma siqnal\u0131n\u0131 hiss ed\u0259n zaman h\u0259min mallardan daha \u00e7ox sat\u0131nalmaq h\u0259v\u0259si artar. V\u0259 n\u0259tic\u0259d\u0259 m\u0259cmu t\u0259l\u0259b y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259r.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n \u018frdo\u011fan\u0131n uzun ill\u0259rdir ki, dediyi \u201cinflyasiyan\u0131 yaradan faizdir\u201d fikri indi he\u00e7 bir iqtisadi m\u0259ntiq\u0259 v\u0259 reall\u0131qlara d\u00f6z\u0259 bilmir. \u0130qtisadiyyatlar\u0131n \u0259sas problemi y\u00fcks\u0259k faiz d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259si deyil, y\u00fcks\u0259k inflyasiya h\u0259ddidir.\u00a0 Halbuki y\u00fcks\u0259k faiz inflyasiyan\u0131n bir n\u0259tic\u0259si kimi meydana \u00e7\u0131x\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 g\u00f6r ne\u00e7\u0259 ildir bu eksperiment \u201cdov\u015fan\u0131n\u0131n\u201d n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259rin\u0259 vaxt s\u0259rf edir, zaman itirir…<\/p>\n <\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiy\u0259nin indiki lir\u0259 \u00e7alxanmalar\u0131 yaln\u0131z monetar siyas\u0259t\u0259 ba\u011flamaq do\u011fru olmaz. S\u0259b\u0259bi odur ki, milli valyutan\u0131n z\u0259if v\u0259ziyy\u0259t\u0259 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131n indiy\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259rki y\u00fcr\u00fctd\u00fcy\u00fc iqtisadi x\u0259talarla ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. TCMB y\u00fcks\u0259k faizl\u0259lr\u0259l\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 q\u0259rarlar vermi\u015f, lir\u0259 dollar qar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda daha \u00e7ox d\u0259y\u0259r itirmi\u015f, n\u00f6vb\u0259ti d\u0259f\u0259 yenid\u0259n faiz d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259sini y\u00fcks\u0259ltmi\u015f bir az da lir\u0259 d\u0259y\u0259rsizl\u0259\u015fmi\u015f v\u0259 xaricd\u0259n dollar alma\u011fa m\u0259cbur olmu\u015flar. Bel\u0259likl\u0259 T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 h\u0259m bununla lir\u0259ni sabitl\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259k ist\u0259mi\u015f, dig\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n is\u0259 xarici borclanman\u0131 art\u0131rm\u0131\u015fd\u0131r. Halbuki faiz d\u0259c\u0259l\u0259rinin art\u0131m\u0131 d\u00f6vl\u0259tl\u0259r\u0259 m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n iqtisadi t\u0259n\u0259ff\u00fcz f\u00fcrs\u0259ti qazand\u0131rmaq m\u0259qs\u0259dil\u0259 edilir. Faiz art\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6zl\u00fcy\u00fcnd\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131 g\u00fccl\u0259ndirmir, m\u00fcv\u0259qq\u0259ti sabitl\u0259\u015fdirir. \u0130qtisadiyyat\u0131n strukturunda ba\u015f vermi\u015f m\u0259nfi meyll\u0259rin yax\u015f\u0131 istiqam\u0259t\u0259 y\u00f6n almas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259n \u015fanslar tan\u0131y\u0131r. \u018fg\u0259r siz d\u00f6vl\u0259t olaraq bundan d\u00fczg\u00fcn istifad\u0259 ed\u0259rsizs\u0259, o zaman bu faiz art\u0131mlar\u0131 sizin iqtisadiyyatda yaratd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z f\u00fcrs\u0259ti imkana \u00e7evr\u0259 bil\u0259r. M\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n milli istehsal \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn laz\u0131m olan idxal mallar\u0131n\u0131, o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n aral\u0131q m\u0259hsullar\u0131n\u0131n azald\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn iqtisadi siyas\u0259t h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irm\u0259lis\u0259n. \u00d6lk\u0259y\u0259 dollar daxilolma kanal\u0131n\u0131n diapazonunu geni\u015fl\u0259ndirm\u0259lis\u0259n. \u0130dxal hesab\u0131na xaric\u0259 qa\u00e7an dollar yollar\u0131n\u0131 daraltmal\u0131san. Bu zaman sabitl\u0259\u015fdirici faktor olan faiz koridoru iqtisadiyyat\u0131na yax\u015f\u0131 t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259r\u0259c\u0259k. Yox, \u0259g\u0259r s\u0259n faiz art\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 sad\u0259c\u0259 arxay\u0131n\u00e7\u0131l\u0131qla m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 ed\u0259n d\u00f6vl\u0259t ad\u0131na ta\u015fama\u00e7\u0131 olacaqsansa, o zaman bu gedi\u015fl\u0259 \u201cfaiz inflyasiyan\u0131 do\u011fracaq\u201d fikri hakim olacaq.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiy\u0259d\u0259 pul-kredit siyas\u0259tind\u0259 \u0259sas\u0259 m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259 lir\u0259y\u0259 inam\u0131n azl\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Eyni zamanda \u00f6lk\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131n dollar \u0259ld\u0259 etm\u0259k kanal\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015f olmamas\u0131 il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Bir t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259n dollar \u0259ld\u0259 ed\u0259 bilmirs\u0259n, dig\u0259r t\u0259r\u0259fd\u0259ns\u0259 dollarla borclan\u0131rsan. Bu zaman iqtisadiyyatda dollarla\u015fma s\u00fcr\u0259ti yava\u015f\u0131y\u0131r. Art\u0131q T\u00fcrkiy\u0259nin borclar\u0131 463 mlrd. dollar\u0131 \u00f6t\u00fcb. D\u00f6vl\u0259t borclar\u0131n\u0131n (daxili + xarici) son 1 ilini m\u00fcqayis\u0259 ets\u0259k, art\u0131m\u0131n nec\u0259 ba\u015f verdiyini m\u00fc\u0259yy\u0259nl\u0259\u015fdirm\u0259k olar. \u018fg\u0259r 2020 fevral ay\u0131nda d\u00f6vl\u0259t borclar\u0131 1 trilyon 410 milyard TL idis\u0259, 2021 fevral ay\u0131nda bu r\u0259q\u0259m 1 trilyon 860 milyard TL s\u0259viyy\u0259sin\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259lib. Son 1 ild\u0259 borc art\u0131m\u0131 32% v\u0259 ya 450 milyard TL olmu\u015fdur. Bu olduqca s\u00fcr\u0259tli borclanma nisb\u0259tini ifad\u0259 edir.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiy\u0259d\u0259 TL-nin z\u0259ifl\u0259m\u0259sind\u0259 valyuta rezervl\u0259rinin d\u0259 m\u0259hdud olmas\u0131 durur. T\u00fcrkiy\u0259nin valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131 95,4 mlrd. dollard\u0131r. Bunun 85%-i kommersiya banklar\u0131n\u0131n MB-da ehtiyatlar\u0131d\u0131r. Bu is\u0259 \u00fcmumiyy\u0259tl\u0259 valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131 say\u0131lm\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnki bunlar \u00f6hd\u0259likl\u0259rdir. TCMB-n\u0131n m\u0259cburi ehtiyat normalar\u0131d\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiy\u0259nin xarici valyutas\u0131n\u0131n h\u0259cmi 15 milyard dollar\u0131 \u00f6tm\u00fcr. Bu o dem\u0259kdir ki, simvolik h\u0259dd\u0259 olan bu valyuta ehtiyatlar\u0131 illik \u00dcDM-nin (2020, 717 mlrd. dollarl\u0131q) olduqca ki\u00e7ik bir hiss\u0259sin t\u0259\u015fkil edir.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiy\u0259nin t\u0259diyy\u0259 balans\u0131nda da ciddi probleml\u0259r yaran\u0131b. \u00d6lk\u0259y\u0259 daxil olan v\u0259saitl\u0259 \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259n \u00e7\u0131xan v\u0259sait T\u00fcrkiy\u0259nin xeyrin\u0259 deyil. \u201cCari a\u00e7\u0131q\u201d dedikl\u0259ri bu defisit illik olaraq son ill\u0259r 30-70 mlrd. dollar aras\u0131nda d\u0259yi\u015fir. X\u00fcsusil\u0259 T\u00fcrkiy\u0259nin enerji komponentl\u0259rinin xaricd\u0259n as\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131, o c\u00fcml\u0259d\u0259n neft-qaz m\u0259hsullar\u0131n\u0131n idxal\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259d\u0259n k\u0259nara 10 milyardlarla valyutan\u0131n ax\u0131n\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olur. Bu da lir\u0259 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn riskyarad\u0131c\u0131 faktor say\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Do\u011frudur, bundan sonra lir\u0259nin daha da d\u0259y\u0259r itirm\u0259sin\u0259 \u00e7ox inanm\u0131ram. Amma \u00fcmumilikd\u0259 lir\u0259nin g\u00fcc\u00fc TCMB-n\u0131n siyas\u0259tin\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 deyildir, iqtisadiyyat\u0131n strukturuna ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r. Ba\u015fqa s\u00f6zl\u0259, yeni MB-n\u0131n i\u015fi asan deyil. Valyuta bazar\u0131nda yan\u011f\u0131ns\u00f6nd\u00fcrm\u0259 \u0259m\u0259liyyat\u0131 h\u0259yata ke\u00e7irm\u0259lidir.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n T\u00fcrkiy\u0259nin h\u0259m daxilind\u0259, h\u0259m d\u0259 xaricind\u0259 \u018frdo\u011fan iqtidar\u0131na qar\u015f\u0131 g\u00fcv\u0259n \u00e7ox sars\u0131l\u0131b. Bu iqtidar\u0131n etdikl\u0259rinin miqyas\u0131ndan v\u0259 komanda g\u00fcc\u00fcnd\u0259n as\u0131l\u0131 olmayaraq bazar i\u015ftirak\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131na sivil oyun qaydalar\u0131n\u0131 inand\u0131rmaq do\u011frudan da \u00e7\u0259tin bir i\u015f\u0259 \u00e7evrilib. \u0130qtisadiyyat\u0131n \u00fcmumil\u0259\u015fmi\u015f obraz\u0131n\u0131n t\u0259zah\u00fcrl\u0259ri valyuta bazar\u0131nda, valyuta bazar\u0131ndak\u0131 s\u0259rt dal\u011falanmalar\u0131n da \u0259sas\u0131 is\u0259 siyasi iqtidardad\u0131r. G\u00fcv\u0259n sars\u0131landa, bu h\u0259m siyas\u0259tin, h\u0259m d\u0259 iqtisadiyyat\u0131n n\u0259tic\u0259l\u0259ri kimi ortaya \u00e7\u0131x\u0131r.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n ASTNA.biz<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 prezidenti R\u0259c\u0259b Tayyip \u018frdo\u011fan T\u00fcrkiy\u0259 Cumhuriyy\u0259tinin M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131n\u0131n (TCMB) r\u0259hb\u0259rinin q\u0259fil i\u015fd\u0259n \u00e7\u0131xarandan sonra lir\u0259 15-17 faiz ucuzla\u015f\u0131b. Bel\u0259<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6660,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iqtisadiyyat"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/Lir\u044d.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6659","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6659"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6659\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6662,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6659\/revisions\/6662"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6659"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6659"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/basta2.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6659"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}